Trinidad Charts a Stronger Economic Course

June 20, 2026

Trinidad Charts a Stronger Economic Course, from Stabilization to Growth

• Trinidad & Tobago Mid-Year Review Shows Improving Fiscal Position: The Government reported a reduction in the fiscal deficit from 5.8% of GDP to 4.0% of GDP, supported by stronger than expected revenues and controlled expenditure. Investor confidence was further boosted by the successful US$1 billion international bond issue and Moody’s Stable Outlook.

• U.S. Markets led by Technology Stocks: The Nasdaq gained 2.43% over the past five trading days, while the S&P 500 rose 0.96% and the Dow advanced 0.71%. Investors balanced strong AI-driven earnings expectations against concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

• Europe Positive, Asia Mixed: European equities posted gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 (+1.71%), DAX (+1.42%), and CAC 40 (+0.84%) advancing. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei surged 7.92%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 3.21%, reflecting diverging regional economic outlooks.

• Trinidad & Tobago Equity Market Remains Stable: The TTSE Composite Index slipped just 0.09%, while the All T&T Index gained 0.06%. Trading activity remained healthy, with Prestige Holdings (+15.0%) and Trinidad Cement (+6.9%) leading gains. Banking system liquidity declined to TT$3.5 billion, indicating somewhat tighter domestic financial conditions.

• Trinidad Bonds Continue to Outperform Regional Peers: Trinidad and Tobago sovereign bonds trade at lower yields than comparable Jamaica and Barbados issues, reflecting stronger credit fundamentals. Long-dated Trinidad bonds yield approximately 6%, compared with 6.3% for Jamaica and 6.5% for Barbados, supporting continued investor demand for Trinidad sovereign risk.

Dave Dookie, Managing Director

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago’s 2026 Mid-Year Review focused on stabilization, fiscal discipline and rebuilding confidence. The Minister of Finance reported that the fiscal deficit declined from TT$10.07 billion, or 5.8% of GDP, to TT$7.01 billion, or 4.0% of GDP, while the primary deficit, which is the difference between Government’s revenue and its non-interest expenditure narrowed sharply to about TT$101 million, near balance.

Revenue for October 2025 to April 2026 was TT$30.1 billion, ahead of the TT$28.0 billion projection, while expenditure was below budget at TT$31.8 billion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of approximately TT$1.7 billion for the period.

The Review also pointed to improving investor confidence, citing the successful US$1 billion international bond issue in January 2026, Trinidad and Tobago’s removal from the EU list of non-cooperative jurisdictions, Moody’s change in outlook from Negative to Stable, and growing multilateral engagement through the World Bank and CAF. The Government projected higher average oil and gas assumptions of US$85 per barrel and US$4.50 per MMBtu, with supplementary funding of TT$2.9 billion to be financed through domestic and external borrowing.

Global markets were mixed over the last five trading days. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Total Return Index rose 0.96%, the Dow gained 0.71%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.43%, supported by renewed technology and AI-related buying. However, sentiment remained sensitive to interest-rate expectations after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold and rising Treasury yields. The 2-year U.S. Treasury was around 4.18%, while the 10-year stood near 4.44%, reflecting continued caution over inflation and monetary policy.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 declined 1.04% over five trading days, weighed down by softer risk appetite and pressure in energy linked names as oil prices eased. Brent crude traded near US$80.57, significantly below recent highs, after news of an interim agreement to end the Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz improved supply expectations. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, although persistent inflation concerns remained.

European markets were generally positive despite daily weakness. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.71%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.84%, and Germany’s DAX advanced 1.42% over five trading days. Investor sentiment was supported by lower oil prices and improved geopolitical conditions, though inflation and rate uncertainty limited broader upside.

Asian markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 7.92%, one of the strongest global performances, supported by technology and export-oriented stocks. China’s Shanghai Composite gained 2.60%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 3.21%, reflecting ongoing concerns about Chinese growth momentum and investor caution toward Hong Kong-listed equities.

In Trinidad and Tobago, the equity market was mixed. The Composite Index slipped 0.09% to 991.58, while the All T&T Index edged up 0.06% to 1,444.88. The Cross Listed Index declined 0.56%, and the SME Index fell 1.83%. Weekly First Tier volume rose to 1.14 million shares, although traded value declined to TT$11.1 million. Prestige Holdings led gains, rising 15.0%, followed by Trinidad Cement at 6.94% and GraceKennedy at 4.17%.

Domestic liquidity tightened during the week as commercial banks’ excess reserves fell from TT$4.67 billion to TT$3.52 billion, a decline of about TT$1.15 billion. The reduction points to tighter banking system liquidity, which could support firmer domestic yields and affect demand for government and corporate bonds.

In Caribbean USD bonds, Trinidad and Tobago remained one of the region’s more defensive credits, with offer yields ranging from about 4.33% on the 2027s to 5.99% on the 2036s. Jamaica offered slightly higher longer-dated yields, around 6.30% on the 2045s, while Barbados’ 2035s yielded approximately 6.55%. The yield differential suggests Trinidad continues to benefit from stronger perceived credit quality, while Jamaica and Barbados offer higher carry for investors willing to assume additional sovereign risk.

About the author: Dave Dookie is the Managing Director of Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited, a Trinidad and Tobago based financial advisory firm specializing in investment management, capital markets and structured finance. He has advised governments, financial institutions, and energy companies on debt issuance, project financing, and strategic capital raising across the Caribbean. He holds degrees and advanced qualifications from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and the University of London and has completed advanced training in data science through the MIT Applied Data Science Program.

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