Trinidad and Tobago Energy Revival

Trinidad and Tobago Energy Revival Gains Momentum as Global Markets Face Higher Rates

September 4, 2026

Dave Dookie, Managing Director

• Trinidad and Tobago’s energy outlook is improving as higher hydrocarbon prices, renewed exploration and regional gas developments could increase LNG and petrochemical production from 2027.

• U.S. equities were broadly flat, the S&P 500 gained 0.1%, the Nasdaq rose 0.4%, and the Dow fell 0.3%. Strong employment data pushed Treasury yields higher and supported expectations of restrictive Federal Reserve policy.

• UK equities were relatively resilient, while European markets weakened amid higher energy prices, fiscal concerns and persistent inflation risks. Asian markets were mixed, with declines in Japan and China but a modest gain in Hong Kong.

• Trinidad and Tobago equities advanced, with the TTSE Composite Index up 0.44%. Trading remained modest, while commercial bank excess reserves increased to approximately TT$5.24 billion.

• Caribbean USD bonds were generally stable. Trinidad and Tobago sovereign yields ranged around 5.60% to 6.38%, Jamaica around 5.80% to 6.37%, Barbados around 6.80% to 6.99%, and selected Dominican Republic issues around the mid-6% range.

Trinidad and Tobago's energy sector is entering a more constructive phase, with improving upstream activity, higher hydrocarbon prices and renewed investment offering the prospect of stronger gas availability and downstream utilization. After several years in which declining natural-gas production constrained LNG and petrochemical output, the outlook is increasingly being shaped by regional gas development, renewed exploration and efforts to restore capacity at Point Lisas. The timing is particularly important, Brent crude climbed above US$90 per barrel this week as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions disrupted energy markets, providing a stronger commodity price backdrop for energy exporters.

Attention is now shifting toward 2027, when several initiatives could begin materially changing Trinidad and Tobago's production outlook. Cross-border gas developments involving Venezuela, continued exploration by major international operators, and progress toward commercializing additional offshore resources could improve feedstock availability for Atlantic LNG and Point Lisas. Greater domestic gas supply could support LNG exports while allowing currently underutilized petrochemical capacity to return to production. The key risk remains execution, that is projects must move from exploration and negotiation into sustained commercial production, but the direction of activity is significantly more encouraging than in recent years.

United States

U.S. equities ended a volatile five-day period broadly flat. The S&P 500 gained approximately 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.4% and the Dow declined 0.3%. Friday reversed some earlier gains after August payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 162,000, pushing Treasury yields higher and renewing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive stance. The 2-year Treasury yield moved to approximately 4.37%, while the 10-year approached 4.78%. Technology remained an important source of support, with NVIDIA gaining approximately 5.9% over five days, although broader technology performance was mixed.

UK and Europe

European markets were weaker as investors confronted higher energy prices, fiscal concerns and the prospect of tighter-for-longer monetary policy. The STOXX Europe 600 declined approximately 0.8% over five days, while France's CAC 40 fell around 1.5% and Germany's DAX was also under pressure. The Middle East conflict and rising oil prices have complicated the inflation outlook, increasing sensitivity to upcoming European Central Bank decisions. The UK FTSE 100 was comparatively resilient, gaining around 0.1%, although rising gilt yields remained a headwind.

Asia

Performance was mixed. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined approximately 2.1% over five days despite a strong Friday rebound, as expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening weighed on sentiment. The yen strengthened as markets considered the possibility of another 25-basis-point increase. China's Shanghai Composite declined approximately 0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained around 0.3%, leaving the regional picture uneven.

Caribbean Equities

Trinidad and Tobago equities improved, with the TTSE Composite Index rising 0.44% to 1,021.18 and the All T&T Index gaining 0.56%. Trading activity nevertheless remained relatively modest as1.34 million shares changed hands with a value of TT$13.52 million. Banking system liquidity strengthened materially, with commercial-bank excess reserves increasing by approximately TT$1.29 billion to TT$5.24 billion.

Caribbean Bonds

Regional USD sovereign bonds remained relatively stable despite the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Trinidad and Tobago's 2030 4.50% bond was indicated around 95.50-96.25, yielding 5.60%, while the 2036 6.50% traded around 101.00-101.75, yielding 6.25%. Trinidad and Tobago 2038 6.20% bond was approximately 98.55-99.15, with an offer yield of 6.30%.

Jamaica continued to trade at comparatively firm levels: its 2039 8.00% bond was around 117.25-118.25, yielding 5.80%, while the 2045 yielded approximately 6.29%. Barbados' 2035 8.00% was quoted around 105.20-106.20, yielding 6.80%. Dominican Republic bonds remained liquid across the curve, with the 2034 5.75% around 96.95-97.35 and yields near 6.20%, while the 2036 and 2045 issues offered yields around the mid-6% range.

Outlook

Markets enter the coming week balancing resilient economic growth against higher inflation and interest-rate risks. For Trinidad and Tobago, the combination of stronger energy prices, improving sector activity and the prospect of additional gas supply in 2027 provides an increasingly constructive medium-term backdrop for economic growth, government revenues and external credit fundamentals.

About the author: Dave Dookie is the Managing Director of Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited, a Trinidad and Tobago based financial advisory firm specializing in investment management, capital markets and structured finance. He has advised governments, financial institutions, and energy companies on debt issuance, project financing, and strategic capital raising across the Caribbean. He holds degrees and advanced qualifications from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and the University of London and has completed advanced training in data science through the MIT Applied Data Science Program.

Disclosure, Conflicts of Interest & Important Information

This publication has been prepared and issued by Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited (“Waterloo Capital”) for informational and market commentary purposes only. The material contained herein does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or to participate in any investment strategy. The information contained in this report has been obtained from publicly available sources and other third-party data believed to be reliable, including financial market data providers, government publications, and industry sources. While Waterloo Capital has made reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information presented, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, reliability, or completeness. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein reflect the judgment of Waterloo Capital as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Investments in financial markets involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and market conditions may change rapidly. Economic forecasts, price projections, and market outlooks are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon as guarantees of future performance.

Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited, its affiliates, directors, officers, employees, and associated persons may from time to time have positions in securities, commodities, currencies, or other financial instruments referenced in this publication. In addition, Waterloo Capital may provide, or seek to provide, investment banking, capital markets advisory, asset management, research, or other financial services to companies, governments, or institutions mentioned in this report. Such activities may give rise to potential conflicts of interest.

Recipients of this publication should not treat it as a substitute for the exercise of their own independent judgment. Investors should consider the appropriateness of any investment strategy in light of their individual objectives, financial circumstances, and risk tolerance, and should seek independent professional advice, including financial, legal, tax, or accounting advice where appropriate. This report is intended solely for general informational distribution and may not be reproduced, redistributed, or published in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited. The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions, and persons into whose possession this report comes are required to inform themselves of and observe any such restrictions.

Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential loss or damage arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this publication.

© Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited. All rights reserved.