Higher Oil Prices Improve Trinidad’s Export Outlook but Raise Domestic Cost Pressures

August 7, 2026

Dave Dookie, Managing Director

• Oil & Trinidad and Tobago: Elevated oil prices improve energy export earnings, government revenues and foreign-exchange inflows, but higher fuel, freight and imported-goods costs could increase inflationary pressures.

• U.S. Markets: Equities rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 up 3.59%, Nasdaq up 5.19% and Dow up 2.96%, supported by softer employment data and expectations for a less restrictive Federal Reserve.

• UK, Europe & Asia: The FTSE 100 gained 0.30%, while European markets performed strongly, including the DAX +2.69% and Euro Stoxx 50 +2.61%. Asia was mixed, with Japan +1.93%, Shanghai +2.81% and Hong Kong -0.84%.

• Trinidad & Tobago Market: The TTSE Composite declined 0.23%, although trading volume increased 53.77%. Banking-system excess liquidity rose substantially to approximately TT$4.20 billion, from TT$2.48 billion the previous week.

• Caribbean Bonds: Trinidad’s sovereign curve remained relatively firm, with the 2030 bond yielding 5.51% and 2036 at 6.24%. Jamaica’s longer bonds yielded roughly 5.78% to 6.25%, Barbados’ 2035 about 6.73%, while Dominican Republic yields extended toward 6.88% at the long end.

Oil prices remained elevated during the week, with Brent crude trading around the mid-US$80s and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continuing to support a risk premium. For Trinidad and Tobago, higher crude prices are broadly positive from an export and fiscal perspective. Although natural gas and petrochemicals remain more important than crude oil alone, firmer energy prices improve the value of hydrocarbon exports, strengthen foreign exchange earnings and can provide additional support to government revenues through taxes, royalties and energy-sector activity. Higher export receipts would also help reinforce the country’s external position and could provide some relief to persistent foreign exchange shortages if elevated prices are sustained.

However, the benefits are not one-sided. Trinidad and Tobago also imports significant volumes of refined fuels, food, manufactured goods and other products whose transportation and production costs are sensitive to global energy prices. Higher oil prices can therefore raise the import bill, increase shipping and logistics costs, and create renewed inflationary pressure. The overall economic effect will depend on the balance between stronger energy export revenues and higher imported costs. In the near term, the net effect should remain favorable for Trinidad given its position as an energy exporter, but prolonged oil prices above current levels could eventually place pressure on consumers, businesses and the Government’s subsidy and operating costs.

U.S. equity markets recorded a strong week, helped by weaker employment data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not need to tighten policy further. The S&P 500 Total Return Index gained 3.59%, the Dow rose 2.96%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 5.19%. Technology remained a major driver, with Broadcom gaining 9.77%, Micron 6.63%, and Meta 6.36%, while Alphabet slipped 0.51%. Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year around 4.61%, supporting growth stocks and risk assets.

In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 0.30% over five trading days. European markets were stronger, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.61%, France’s CAC 40 gaining 2.41%, and Germany’s DAX rising 2.69%. Italy also performed well, with the FTSE MIB up almost 3.0%. The combination of improving risk sentiment and expectations for easier monetary policy supported equities despite elevated energy prices.

Asian markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.93%, while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 2.81%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.84%, reflecting continued uncertainty over China’s economic recovery. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 3.19%, supported by financial and resource stocks.

The Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange softened modestly despite improved trading activity. The Composite Index declined 0.23%, the All T&T Index fell 0.20%, and the Cross Listed Index slipped 0.31%. First Tier volume rose 53.77% to approximately 1.03 million shares, while value traded increased to TT$9.28 million. A.S. Bryden gained 7.91%, National Flour Mills rose 1.31%, and ANSA McAL advanced 0.73%. One Caribbean Media fell 6.55%, JMMB Group declined 4.71%, and National Enterprises lost 4.26%. Banking-system excess liquidity increased sharply to approximately TT$4.20 billion, up TT$1.72 billion from the previous week.

Caribbean USD sovereign bonds remained relatively firm. Trinidad and Tobago’s 2030 bond yielded 5.51%, while the 2034, 2036 and 2038 maturities yielded approximately 6.11%, 6.24% and 6.37%, respectively. Jamaica’s longer maturities traded around 5.78% to 6.25%, while Barbados offered approximately 5.28% on the 2029 bond and 6.73% on the 2035 issue. The Dominican Republic curve ranged from about 4.49% on short maturities to approximately 6.88% at the long end. Trinidad continued to trade as one of the more defensive regional credits, while Jamaica, Barbados and the Dominican Republic offered additional yield for investors prepared to accept higher credit or duration risk.

Major Global Equity Indices – Weekly & 1-Year Performance

Region	Major Index	5-Day Change	1-Year Price Change
United States	S&P 500 Total Return	+3.59%	+23.83%
United States	Dow Jones	+2.96%	+22.90%
United States	Nasdaq Composite	+5.19%	+25.65%
United Kingdom	FTSE 100	+0.30%	+19.78%
Europe	STOXX Europe 600	+1.70%	+20.91%
Eurozone	Euro Stoxx 50	+2.61%	+22.35%
Germany	DAX	+2.69%	+8.79%
France	CAC 40	+2.41%	+13.04%
Italy	FTSE MIB	+2.96%	+29.77%
Japan	Nikkei 225	+1.93%	+59.79%
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	-0.84%	+2.34%
China	Shanghai Composite	+2.81%	+8.25%
Australia	S&P/ASX 200	+3.19%	+4.89%

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics

About the author: Dave Dookie is the Managing Director of Waterloo Capital Advisors Limited, a Trinidad and Tobago based financial advisory firm specializing in investment management, capital markets and structured finance. He has advised governments, financial institutions, and energy companies on debt issuance, project financing, and strategic capital raising across the Caribbean. He holds degrees and advanced qualifications from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and the University of London and has completed advanced training in data science through the MIT Applied Data Science Program.

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